No Room for Kotchman on Rays Roster

(Photo by Jonathan C. Mitchell)

The Rays are stacked deep at almost every position except first base. The same question is always brought up: Who will play firstbase for the Rays in 2011? Will it be the unproven Dan Johnson? How about using Ben Zobrist but at the expense of his valuable glove playing 2B and RF? I laugh at those who mention Leslie Anderson. But one other choice that is brought up is Casey Kotchman, and one thing is for sure he does not belong on a contending team as a starting firstbaseman.

Kotchman has had four seasons in his career with at least 125 games played and over 430 plate appearances. Only once in those four seasons has he posted a BB% higher than 9%, a wRC above league average, an OPS+ above league average, and a wOBA above .325. In fact, his stats have declined to the point where last year he was worth -1.1 fWAR and -0.9 rWAR. Take a look at his declining stats:

Stat	2007	2008	2009	2010
AVG	.296	.272	.268	.217
OBP	.372	.328	.339	.280
SLG	.467	.410	.382	.336
ISO	.172	.137	.114	.118
OPS+	119	93	90	73
wRC+	120	97	92	66
wOBA	.362	.322	.317	.270
fWAR	+3.3	+1.8	+1.0	-1.1
rWAR	+3.1	+1.1	+1.5	-0.9
UZR	12.6	11.7	7.8	-0.4

 

Even his “bread-n-butter” defense was of negative value last season and if you were to take the average of those four seasons you would get a firstbaseman that would hit .264/.331/.401 with a 95 OPS+ and 1.2 rWAR and 1.25 fWAR, and there is no reason to believe Kotchman could put those numbers up in the AL East after declining each of the past three seasons.

The Rays will be best served by giving the firstbase job to Dan Johnson and letting Joe Maddon use the versatile Ben Zobrist to back him up, thus allowing Sean Rodriguez and Matt Joyce to get playing time at their respected positions. Having Kotchman on the roster kills the chances of Rodriguez and Joyce finding ample playing time. There simply is no room for Kotchman on the Rays roster.

Scouting the Rays on 2/27/11

(Picture by Jonathan C. Mitchell)

-My favorite player to watch on the Rays was Robinson Chirinos. He was hitting lasers all over BP and hit a pinch-hit bomb over the palm trees in left. He keeps his weight back very well and transfers it at the right moment, maximizing his power. I didn’t get to see him behind the plate, though.

–James Shields worked only one inning and gave up that laser shot to Andrew McCutchen on a pitch he left up and in the middle half. Otherwise, he looked ok, getting ahead of hitters and getting robbed on a called third strike to leadoff hitter Jose Tabata. It just happened to be the one pitch he left up got hit out.

-One guy that did well in BP was 24 year old Russ Canzler who hit 21 homers and 28 doubles in AA last year in the Cubs organization in only 355 at-bats. He has a lofty swing that also produced a lot of high fly balls and pop ups. His swing was fun to watch in BP but will drive a manager crazy in the Majors.

–Matt Joyce appeared to be working on an opposite field stroke in BP and didn’t put on the show I expected, but I’m ok with that. I think he was trying to do the same in the game because he was getting pounded inside and looked like he was waiting for something on the outer half.

-Rays prospect Alex Torres got two innings of work in, showing a live fastball but not much command and had a problem putting hitters away. His delivery looks good, showing good balance and gets a lot of velocity from his legs and also keeps his head up the whole time, but his release point was inconsistent. He has some flaws that are workable and there is a lot to like about him.

–Desmond Jennings was very patient at the plate, showing a very good eye and laying off of borderline pitches that early in the at-bat. He also showed off his speed, swiping second base with ease and chased a deep ball hit by Walker in the right-center field gap for a nice running catch. On the other hand he showed little to no power in BP and also lost a routine flyball in the sun while wearing sunglasses.

–Justin Ruggiano looked bad at the plate, flailing at off-speed stuff down and away from starter Kevin Correia and showing little-to-no patience at the plate.

–Casey Kotchman is the same as always. He did go 2-2 but one was a groundball on a hit and run that left a hole and the other was basically a bloop single. His swing is geared towards contact and looks slow to the naked eye.

-I don’t know what to make of Tim Beckham. He looked awful in warm-ups, booting roughly 20% of the routine balls hits to him. He lacked range to his right in the game, having to backhand a routine groundball that he should have been able to get in front of. He does have a very strong arm, though, and was able to gun the runner down in time for the out. At the plate and in BP he worked on hitting the ball up the middle and I like that approach. It worked in one at-bat when he hit a solid line drive up the middle for a single. His base running was atrocious, taking horrible routes around the bases and showing little awareness of where the ball was, hesitating on an easy call to go first-to-third and ending up just staying put at second. He also showed little awareness in the field. On a ball hit to his left he made a play and the runner from second broke to third, he “looked” over to third to make sure the runner wasn’t going home but the runner never broke stride and went straight for home. Beckham threw to first as if the runner never broke for home. It was a lazy effort on his part assuming the runner would stop at third.

For my full report, including the Pirates, check it out here at MLBdirt.com

2011 Rays Projections: B.J. Upton

B.J. Upton might possibly the hardest player on the Rays to project. A player capable of putting up an on-base percentage above .380 with 20+ homer and 40+ steal capabilities. The steals are a virtual lock but the power and on-base skills are hard to predict.

Since 2007, Upton’s first full season, his OBP has seen major declines. He posted an outstanding .386 OBP in 2007 and .383 in 2008 but well below-average .313 in 2009 and .322 in 2010. His average has also dropped every season (.300-.273-.241-.237).

Parts of Upton’s problems have been that he cannot catch up to above-average fastballs. It’s obvious to the naked eye and in his stats. If you take out his 2007 season where he posted an amazing +23.8 wFB he stands at -13.3 wFB. Yes, it is a running stat, but it’s still below average. In fact he sits below average against the slider (-17.4) and the cutter (-6.4). Upton only seems to flourish against softer stuff. He owns above-average career marks in wCH (11.3), wCB (10.3), and wSF (4.6).

Two more problems have been contact and inability to hit right-handers. Upton set career highs in O-Swing% (25.3%) and SwingingStrike% (12.0%). He also hit a dimal .218/.294/.371 in 413 plate appearances against right-handers with a 34.3% K-rate.

On the bright side, Upton has seen increases in ISO the past three seasons (.128+.132+.187), hits left-handers very well, and always adds value with his glove. But due to his inconsistencies I could not project totals for him that I myself believe are attainable. Here are his projected numbers for 2011:

Stat	Total
AVG	.248
OBP	.331
SLG	.435
OPS	.766
Plate App.	628
At-Bats	556
Hits	138
Homeruns	18
Doubles	42
Triples	4
BB	68
SO	153
SB	44
UZR	+3

 

At first glance those numbers don’t jump out at you and scream excellence, but compared to position they are actually very good and could net him in the range of 3.4-3.7 fWAR depending on replacement level for next year.

Again, the hard part about Upton and doing these projections is that you know he has the ability to post an fWAR around 5 but whether it’s his offense, his defense, his lack of hustle, or whatever, he has yet to reach the 5 fWAR mark. Will this be the year he does? I’d like to think so, at least not until he makes adjustments and learns how to hit the fastball again. I have to be realistic with Upton and the projected stats are plenty to be happy about, especially when you know he has the ability to outperform them.

2011 Rays Projections: Kelly Shoppach

Raise your hand if you were excited when the Rays traded for Kelly Shoppach by sending a PTBNL to the Indians. *raises hand* Ok, now raise your hand if you wanted to kick him off the team after the season ended with his horrible regular season and postseason performance. *raises hand again* Maybe I’m in the minority, probably not, because at the time most Rays fans just wanted to see someone, anyone, other than Dioner Navarro behind the plate in Tampa Bay and during the playoffs, even against left-handers, all we wanted to see was John Jaso.

Shoppach carried a very nice .208 ISO over in the trade but we were warned by Dave Cameron about his platoon split due to a lack of at-bats. Cameron wasn’t wrong but he wasn’t exactly right. Shoppach did have a horrible season with the Rays in 2010 but his splits against left-handed pitchers weren’t bad. He did hit .261/.369/.455 with a wOBA of .366 in 103 plate appearances against a pitiful .114/.232/.200 in 84 plate appearances against right-handers.

His career line against left-handers now sits at .286/.381/.568 with a wOBA of .404 in 361 career plate appearances. Cameron was right that he could not duplicate his splits against left-handers but he still holds very good value against them. Here are Shoppach’s projected totals for 2011:

Stat	Total
AVG	.238
OBP	.339
SLG	.419
OPS	.758
Plate App.	245
At-Bats	210
Hits	50
Homeruns	9
Doubles	11
Triples	0
BB	28
SO	87
SB	0
UZR	-2

 

Maddon is as smart as any manager at placing his players in the right environment to succeed. I expect to see Shoppach in the lineup against most left-handers and very few right-handers, only to give Jaso a day off.

Expect a bounce back from Shoppach because I find it hard for him to duplicate his poor performance of 2010 against right-handers and he has proven that he can mash against left-handers.

2011 Rays Projections: Matt Joyce

When the Rays traded starting pitcher Edwin Jackson for young outfielder Matt Joyce back on December 10th of 2008 everyone knew it was a good swap for both teams. The Rays had a plethora of starting pitchers and were in need of a young, cheap bat with power.

Well, over the past two seasons Edwin Jackson has pitched a no-hitter against the Rays and been worth 7.3 fWAR. Matt Joyce has found it hard to crack the Rays lineup and has only had 298 plate appearances with the big club.

It’s 2011 now and Edwin Jackson has been traded twice and Matt Joyce is looking to get a lot of at-bats in Joe Maddon’s many lineups.  Here are my 2011 projected numbers for the young slugger with a career .243 ISO in just under 600 plate appearances:

Stat	Total
AVG	.259
OBP	.359
SLG	.478
OPS	.837
Plate App.	568
At-Bats	494
Hits	128
Homeruns	23
Doubles	31
Triples	4
BB	74
SO	133
SB	5
UZR	+5

 

If I had to make my own “gut” predictions I would say Joyce is a virtual lock to hit 25+ homeruns but I have to look at his playing time realistically.

Joyce may find it hard to crack the lineup against tough left-handers but should be in almost every lineup against any right-hander. Maddon is great at playing the right guys in the scenarios and Joyce should find plenty of playing time if RF, LF, DH, and as a pinch-hitter.

Joyce’s projected totals should net him around 3 fWAR in 2011, give or take a couple tenths depending on how much defensive value he adds because +5 UZR may be low. This will be the year people will stop saying the Rays lost the Jackson-Joyce trade and realize it was a great trade for the Rays.

Can Canseco Really Make a Come Back?

This is not exactly news: Jose Canseco thinks he can make a comeback and play in the Major Leagues at the age of 45. This seems a bit far fetched, not only due to his age but due to his knack for pointing the finger and turning his back on the clubhouse confidential unwritten rule.

Canseco has not played in the Major Leagues since 2001 when he posted a .258/.366/.477 line with an OPS+ of 117, wRC+ of 121, and 16 homeruns in 256 at-bats, good for an rWAR of 1.0 and fWAR of 1.1, walking in 14.7% of his at-bats with the White Sox.

In 2010 Canseco played in 11 games with the Independent League Laredo Broncos. Canseco hit .385/.510/.769 (15-39) with 3 doubles, 4 homeruns, and a 9/10 BB/K rate. Yes, the competition is something along the lines of AA ballplayers who couldn’t hack it, but impressive numbers for a 45 year old in a professional sport. Canseco also looks to be in great shape and his bat speed seems to be at least where it was in 2001. Take a look at his first homerun with Laredo in the video (at the 3:05 mark):

This is not proof he can hit Major League pitching. In fact, at the 2:45 mark he swung and missed against what appears to a left-hander that probably tops out around 90 mph on a high radar gun. But it is proof that he still has bat speed and can still hit a ball a long way in game conditions.

The other thing would hold Canseco back was his platoon split his last two seasons in the Majors. Playing for both the Yankees and Rays in 2000 he hit .286/.398/558 against left-handers in 93 plate appearances and only .242/.370/.409 against right-handers in 308 PAs. In 2001 he crushed left-handers to the tune of .273/.395/.697 in 81 PAs and hit .253/.356/.409 in 225 PAs against right-handers.

So, the main question was “Can Canseco really make a comeback?” I honestly would love to see it happen. Physically and skillfully I do believe Canseco could make a successful comeback as a DH that plays everyday against left-handers and only hits against soft-tossing right-handers. Realistically, though, I don’t see a team allowing Canseco in their clubhouse, thus making any return to the Major Leagues near impossible.

2011 Rays Projections: Reid Brignac

2011 is the year that Rays fans will finally get to see Reid Brignac as their starting shortstop. Brignac was being called the Rays shortstop of the future since he broke on to the scene by winning the MVP in the Cal League in 2001.

Since then, though, he hasn’t performed at the same level, digressing a bit on offense while becoming a very good fielding shortstop. Inability to hit left-handed pitching, poor discipline and lack of pitch recognition at higher levels have hurt him but with repetition and he should be able to find his niche.

Here are my projected stats for Brignac:

Stat	Total
AVG	.270
OBP	.323
SLG	.411
OPS	.734
Plate App.	526
At-Bats	489
Hits	132
Homeruns	11
Doubles	28
Triples	4
BB	35
SO	108
SB	5
UZR	+5

 

That makes Brignac roughly a 2.3-2.5 fWAR player in 2011, an actual improvement over the departed Jason Bartlett. Brignac will get a lot of production from his glove. He posted a +3.0 UZR in only 340.2 innings at shortstop in 2010 so my projected +5.0 may be a little low. He also has some loft to his swing so the 11 homeruns may be a bit low and the .270 average could be a bit high. Either way, I feel these are pretty safe projections and I do feel he can out perform them and be a 3-win player.

2011 Rays Projections: Sam Fuld

Sam Fuld was acquired by the Tampa Bay Rays in the Matt Garza deal as kind of a throw-in at the end of the deal.

Fuld will be 29 for the entire 2011 season and possesses no real plus skill. He has good speed, plays good defense, has good plate discipline, but no power and no real hit-tool. He was never given a real chance to play everyday and I assume he still will not have that same chance with the Rays as he projects to be their 5th outfielder.

Here are his projected stats:

Stat	Total
AVG	.267
OBP	.349
SLG	.358
OPS	.705
Plate App.	272
At-Bats	243
Hits	65
Homeruns	2
Doubles	10
Triples	3
BB	28
SO	30
SB	12
UZR	+2

 

These projections may be a bit high in playing time but I am assuming he steals a few at-bats due to his ability to play the outfield better than the recent free agent hires. These projections put him around +0.6-0.7 fWAR. Not a bad projection for the last man on a roster.

2011 Rays Projections: John Jaso

Before the April of 2010 most people, Rays fans included, did not know who John Jaso was. And some of the people who did know who he was probably never thought he would be a Major League starting catcher, especially not for an AL East contender. Well, Jaso proved a lot of people wrong and has become a huge fan favorite for his hustle and style of play in Tampa Bay.

Jaso will open the 2011 season as the Rays starting catcher and most likely get all the leadoff at-bats against right-handed pitchers since Jaso led all Major Leaguers with a .380 OBP from the leadoff spot last year.

Some people may think that Jaso caught the league by surprise, which he did, but they may project a major decline thinking Jaso’s 2nd time around the league will be tougher than his first. I beg to differ. Here are my 2011 projections for Jaso:

Stat	Total
AVG	.271
OBP	.367
SLG	.377
OPS	.744
Plate App.	547
At-Bats	454
Hits	123
Homeruns	6
Doubles	24
Triples	3
BB	73
SO	59
SB	5
UZR	-3

 

Jaso possesses a few skills that help transgress digression: patience, great eye, and firm grasp of the strike zone. We are not talking about some rookie that got lucky last year, although there are people that probably believe that is exactly what happened. Jaso has always possessed these skills and I see no reason why he cannot duplicate his 2010 season and have as much of a shot of outperforming it as he does underperforming it.

I do feel that I may be underestimating Jaso but I cannot put too much emotion, or gut, into these projections but I see no reason outside of injury that Jaso cannot put up these projected numbers and produce 2.6-2.9 fWAR or more.

2011 Rays Projections: Manny Ramirez

The Tampa Bay Rays made a few headlines when they signed Manny Ramirez to a one-year deal worth $2M. A lot of people were shocked at the low rate since Ramirez was coming off of a two-year deal worth $45M with the Dodgers and an eight-year deal worth $160M with Red Sox before that.

Ramirez, who will be 39 at the end of May, has only played in 150+ games once in the past five seasons and is limited to DH duties and probably should not have seen any time in LF since the end of 2003.

Projecting Ramirez is kind of tough. We know his amazing track record as a hitter, we know his track record of missing games the past few seasons, and he has actually hit right-handers better than left-handers over the past three seasons. He might find himself playing in a couple games in LF just to get his bat in the game and we know that will hurt his value.

For the past few years I have been using my own tools to project player stats. Last year I stumbled upon Fangraph’s Fan Projections which allows you to plug in rates, games played, batting order, UZR, and running stats based on 150 game totals. It allows you to pick ranges, not exact totals, so the projections will not be as exact as one might want, but they come close.

Using this tool, three-year averages (which I use in the FG projections), age regression/progression, and my own gut, I come up with this for Manny Ramirez’s projected stats in 2011:

Stat	Total
AVG	.290
OBP	.403
SLG	.494
OPS	.897
Plate App.	454
At-Bats	393
Hits	114
Homeruns	18
Doubles	26
Triples	0
BB	61
SO	90
SB	0
UZR	-2

 

Those modest projections, compared to Ramirez’s career track record, project to about 2.0-2.3 fWAR depending on the replacement level for 2011. Incredible value for the Rays.