MostValuablePlayer

 

Just a few days ago it was announced that Josh Hamilton won the AL MVP award.  I tweeted that the voters got all the winners correct this year but failed in other areas.  The main area of the AL MVP voting they failed was that they had the Cy Young Award winner Felix Hernandez finish below both Rafael Soriano and CC Sabathia. 

I then saw that one of my favorite baseball writers, and a guy I follow on Twitter, Jason Churchill, tweeted “I love that King Felix, on a 100-loss team, received a 5th place vote for AL MVP.”  I, wanting to point out how the voters did good by giving him a 5th place vote but failed in giving other pitchers more votes, responded by saying “He still finished behind Soriano and Sabathia…”  I actually thought he might agree with me.  Not so much.  A fun conversation (at least to me) broke out between the two of us on value of a player.  I, loving a little banter and to hear other sides of a debate, was having fun with this, Churchill seemed to be a bit annoyed by me, though.  Here is the rest of our conversation:

Churchill:  “And he should have, at least CC. It’s VALUE to a team winning. His team didn’t win

Me:  “I respectfully disagree. That’s saying King Felix would’ve been less valuable on the Yanks than CC would’ve been on the M’s.”

Churchill:  Not true at all. It’s saying he was less value in 2010 because he wasn’t doing it on a winning team. Read the guidelines.

Me:  What guidelines say has to be a winning team? “actual value of a player to his team that is, strength of offense & defense”

Churchill:  It states “to a team’s success.” When your team didn’t have any… well, you do the math.

Churchill:  and how valuable is a great performance for a terrible team versus similar performances for a very good team?

Me:  Just as valuable. You’re adding variables that don’t go in the equation. It doesn’t take away the value that player brings.

Churchill:  Sorry, you’re just wrong.

Me:  If player-X pitches a shutout for the M’s it’s just as valuable as pitching one for the Yanks. Value is in player not team.

Churchill:  No, it’s not. As wrong as it gets.

Me:  Right… because the award is MostValuablePlayerOnWinningTeam and not MostValuablePlayer.

Churchill:  No, because it’s more valuable to play well on a winning team. Object is to win, and for players to contribute to winning.

Me:  And Felix having more than a half-run better ERA, xFIP, and FIP than CC is less contributal to helping the team win how?

Seeing as how I was “as wrong as it gets”, our conversation ended with my final tweet.  I was then prompted to re-read the HOF guidelines and here they are:

“The rules of the voting remain the same as they were written on the first ballot in 1931: (1) actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense; (2) number of games played; (3) general character, disposition, loyalty and effort; (4) former winners are eligible; and (5) members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.”

It seems pretty simple to me.  Value of performance, games, and character.  Our argument leaned, not on the value of performance, but whether a player’s value varies depending on the team he plays for.  To me, value is soley in the player and what he can mostly control, not what his team does around him.  You should be able to take any player and his value and place it on another team and it holds the same value.

Felix Hernandez had an fWAR of 6.2 and rWAR of 6.0.  CC Sabathia has an fWAR of 5.1 and a rWAR of 5.4.  Felix Hernandez has the higher value, no matter where he pitched, wheter it was Seattle or New York.

Felix Hernandez, the player, was more valuable than CC Sabathia, the player, no matter which team he played for.  And that’s as right as it gets.

2010 MLB Predictions

Man, it has been a while since I’ve written.  This is me, coming out of my hybernation and predictiong what will happen in the 2010 baseball season.  Hint:  If you know me personally, I have been touting my World Series winner for this season since the beginning of 2007.

AL East
1. Red Sox (95-67)
2. Rays (94-68) (Wild Card)
3. Yankees (93-69)
4. Orioles (74-88)
5. Blue Jays (70-92)

AL Central
1. Twins (87-75)
2. White Sox (82-80)
3. Indians (78-84)
4. Tigers (78-84)
5. Royals (70-92)

AL West
1. Rangers (84-78)
2. Angels (83-79)
3. Athletics (80-82)
4. Mariners (79-85)

NL East
1. Phillies (91-71)
2. Braves (88-74) (Wild Card)
3. Marlins (78-84)
4. Mets (76-86)
5. Nationals (73-89)

NL Central
1. Cardinals (89-73)
2. Brewers (85-77)
3. Cubs (78-84)
4. Reds (77-85)
5. Pirates (71-91)
6. Astros (71-91)

NL West
1. Rockies (87-75)
2. Dodgers (85-77)
3. Diamondbacks (81-81)
4. Giants (79-83)
5. Padres (74-88)

World Series
Rays over Rockies in 6

World Series MVP
Ben Zobrist

MVP
AL: Evan Longoria, Joe Mauer, Nelson Cruz, Ben Zobrist, Dustin Pedroia
NL: Troy Tulowitzki, Chase Utley, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Pablo Sandoval

Cy Young
AL: Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, Brett Anderson, Zack Greinke
NL: Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez, Dan Haren

Rookie of the Year
AL: Brian Matusz, Scott Sizemore, Wade Davis, Ausitn Jackson, Neftali Feliz
NL: Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasburg, Alcides Escobar, Buster Posey, Aroldis Chapman

Utley Robbed in MVP Voting

(Photo by: Chuck Solomon/SI)

Albert Pujols was unanimously named the National League MVP, and rightfully so. He was the most valuable player in the league. The BBWAA voters did a decent job this year of giving the hardware to the right players. Pujols, Joe Mauer, Tim Lincecum, and Zack Greinke were all no-brainers to me and the two rookies of the year (Chris Coghlan and Andrew Bailey) were not bad selections even though they were not my selections. But, where the voters did go wrong was when they tried to quantify the value of Chase Utley, who finished 8th in the NL MVP voting.

Here is the chart from the BBWAA (sorry I couldn’t fit the entire chart here):

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	Points
Albert Pujols, Cardinals	32										448
Hanley Ramirez, Marlins		15	5	3	3		2	3	1		233
Ryan Howard, Phillies		6	8	7	5	1	3	1			217
Prince Fielder, Brewers		5	9	7	3	1		3	1	3	203
Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies		3	6	5	5	5	1	1			172
Andre Ethier, Dodgers		2		3	2	5	4	5	3		113
Pablo Sandoval, Giants			1		2	5	5	6	1	4	89
Chase Utley, Phillies			2	2	1	5	4		3	1	84
Derrek Lee, Cubs		1			3	3	2	2	5		66
Matt Kemp, Dodgers				2	1	2	3	1	1	2	49
Ryan Braun, Brewers					3	1		2	4	6	43
Adrian Gonzalez, Padres				1		1		3	2	5	30
Todd Helton, Rockies			1	1		1	1		2		28
Chris Carpenter, Cardinals					1	2	1		2	1	25
Adam Wainwright, Cards					1			2	1	2	16
Matt Holliday,Cardinals				1			1		2		15
Jayson Werth, Phillies					1		1				10
Shane Victorino, Phillies							2				8
Tim Lincecum, Giants							1		1	2	8
Yunel Escobar, Braves					1						6
Mark Reynolds, D-backs								1	1	1	6
Joey Votto, Reds							1				4
Yadier Molina, Cardinals								1			3
Miguel Tejada, Astros								1			3
Huston Street, Rockies									1		2
Justin Upton, D-backs									1		2
Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals										2	2
Jeremy Affeldt, Giants										1	1
Chris Coghlan, Marlins										1	1
Brad Hawpe, Rockies

As you can see, Utley is not even close in the voting. Granted, no one should be close to the unanimous Pujols, but zero 2nd place votes is simply ridiculous. He was easily 2nd on my imaginary ballot thanks to these overlooked stats: .282/.397/.508 with a wOBA of .402, 31 homers, 23 stolen bases (zero caught stealing), only grounding into 5 double plays, a UZR/150 of +11.3, a fielding percentage of .985, and 7.6 WAR, all while playing a middle infield position. What did those stats get him? Well, he was already snubbed for a Gold Glove award and now he has been completely left off of 14 ballots.

This year the voters have taken a step forward in evaluating players by selecting six deserving players for the major awards. But, they still have a very long way to go when Ryan Howard finishes 3rd, Matt Holliday receives four votes including a 4th place vote, and Jeremy Affeldt is getting votes that Chase Utley should surely be getting first.

-stats from fangraphs.com

My 2009 MLB Awards

(AP Photo/Tom Olmscheid)

Below are my selections for the 2009 awards in Major League Baseball. I added stats my winners to clarify why I chose them and I also included some stats on some players that may make you scratch your head. Agree or disagree, these are my awards:

NL MVP

1. Albert Pujols (1B-STL) – 1st in HR, XBH, WAR, OBP, SLG, OPS, and wOBA.
2. Chase Utley (2B-PHI)
3. Hanley Ramirez (SS-FLA)
4. Prince Fielder (1B-MIL)
5. Troy Tulowitzki (SS-COL)
6. Ryan Zimmerman (3B-WAS)
7. Matt Kemp (OF-LAD)
8. Adrian Gonzalez (1B-SD)
9. Derek Lee (1B-CHC)
10. Ryan Braun (OF-MIL)

AL MVP

1. Joe Mauer (C-MIN) – 2nd in WAR, AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, and plays toughest position in the game.
2. Ben Zobrist (2B-TB) – 1st in WAR, 4th in OBP, OPS, 2nd in fielding value.
3. Miguel Cabrera (1B-DET)
4. Zack Greinke (SP-KC)
5. Derek Jeter (SS-NYY)
6. Mark Teixeira (1B-NYY)
7. Evan Longoria (3B-TB)
8. Kevin Youkilis (1B-BOS)
9. Chone Figgins (3B-LAA)
10. Adam Lind (OF-TOR)

NL Cy Young

1. Tim Lincecum (SP-SF) – 1st in WAR, FIP, SO, and K/9, tied for 1st in CG and SHO, 2nd in ERA, 3rd in IP
2. Adam Wainwright (SP-STL)
3. Javier Vazquez (SP-ATL) – 2nd in WAR, FIP, and K/BB, 3rd in K/9, 4th in BB/9
4. Chris Carpenter (SP-STL)
5. Dan Haren (SP-ARI)
6. Matt Cain (SP-SF)
7. Jonathan Broxton (RP-LAD) – 76 IP, 114/29 K/BB, 1.97 FIP, 2.61 ERA, .165/.247/.232 against, 0.96 WHIP, 1st in WAR among relievers.
8. Jair Jurrjens (SP-ATL)
9. Josh Johnson (SP-FLA)
10. Ubaldo Jimenez (SP-COL)

AL Cy Young

1. Zack Greinke (SP-KC) – 1st in WAR, ERA, FIP, WHIP, OBP, 2nd in K, CG, SHO, and K/BB.
2. Roy Halladay (SP-TOR) – 1st in K/BB, CG, SHO, BB/9, and P/IP, 2nd in IP and OBP, 3rd in WAR, ERA, and FIP.
3. Felix Hernandez (SP-SEA) – 1st in BAA and SLG, 2nd in ERA, 3rd in IP, WHIP, 4th in FIP and WAR.
4. Justin Verlander (SP-DET)
5. Jon Lester (SP-BOS)
6. C.C. Sabathia (SP-NYY)
7. Josh Beckett (SP-BOS)
8. Jered Weaver (SP-LAA)
9. Edwin Jackson (SP-DET)
10. Mariano Rivera (RP-NYY)

NL Rookie Of the Year

1. Andrew McCutchen (OF-PIT) – 1st in WAR (among rookies) and just read this for more on him.
2. Chris Coghlan (OF-FLA)
3. Tommy Hanson (SP-ATL)
4. J.A. Happ (SP-PHI)
5. Garrett Jones (OF-PIT)
6. Randy Wells (SP-CHC)
7. Casey McGehee (3B-MIL)

AL Rookie Of the Year

1. Brett Anderson (SP-OAK) – 1st in WAR among all AL rookies, 175 IP, 3.69 FIP (8th in the AL), 150/45 K/BB.
2. Elvis Andrus (SS-TEX)
3. Andrew Bailey (RP-OAK)
4. Jeff Niemann (SP-TB)
5. Rick Porcello (SP-DET)
6. Nolan Reimold (OF-BAL)
7. Gordon Beckham (3B-CHW)

NL Manager Of the Year

1. Jim Tracy (COL)
2. Tony LaRussa (STL)
3. Fredi Gonzalez (FLA)

AL Manager Of the Year

1. Mike Scioscia (LAA)
2. Ron Washington (TEX)
3. Ron Gardenhire (MIN)