The Not-So-Pretty Early Numbers

Runs Scored (6) – 30th

AVG (.138) – 30th

OBP (.237) – 30th

SLG (.260) – 30th

OPS (.497) – 30th

wOBA (.222) – 30th

wRC+ (35) – 30th

fWAR (-0.7) – 30th

K% (25.2) – 28th

The “power” hitters on the team (Evan Longoria, Manny Ramirez, Dan Johnson, Matt Joyce) are hitting a combined .064/.137/.106 in 47 at-bats.

B.J Upton has been on-base 4 time and been caught stealing or thrown out 3 times.

Starting pitchers have a combined 5.06 ERA and only one Quality Start.

Why Not Leadoff With Manny Ramirez?

(AP Photo/Dave Martin)

It doesn’t matter where I hit. I’m Manny Ramirez, so it doesn’t matter.” – Manny Ramirez on MLB.com (Ian Browne, 05/15/2005)

Rays manager Joe Maddon had new offensive weapon Manny Ramirez in the leadoff spot yesterday to get him at-bats in early before the weekend. This launched a run of jokes and actual misunderstandings about what a leadoff hitter should be when it was announced.

A lot of tweets joking about Manny’s ability to bunt for hits and steal bases were made, and it got me realizing that a lot of people do not understand what a leadoff hitter should be.

This same kind of thing happened last year when Maddon decided to bat John Jaso in the leadoff spot. You would have thought people actually believed that Joe Maddon lost his mind and needed to find it. Maddon proved to be correct when Jaso finished the season leading all players with a .380 OBP from the leadoff spot.

In a twitter conversation with R.J. Anderson and a few others there does appear to be growing concern among some that Jaso could see some regression if he does not learn to hit for higher than a .270 AVG that is loaded with mostly singles. If he cannot then Major League pitchers will catch on and do nothing but throw him strikes, forcing his hand at putting more balls in play (career .281 BABIP) and reducing his walk rates, which he lives by. If this happens he may be dropped to the bottom of the Rays order.

B.J. Upton has the leadoff spot against left-handers secured but struggled mightily against right-handers. So who will leadoff against right-handers if Jaso does regress? Ben Zobrist is a great option but why not Manny?

Over the past three seasons Manny Ramirez has posted a .428 OBP against right-handed pitchers as opposed to a .396 OBP against left-handers, not that there is anything wrong with that. Last year was his worst of the three seasons and he still posted a .404 OBP against RHPs.

Many’s power is on the decline with his ISO going from .270-to-.241-to-.162 from 2008-2010. Why not utilize his best weapon right now? Contrary to popular belief and what Mitch Williams may say on MLB Network, the leadoff spot is not reserved for speedy slap hitters who force the thirdbaseman in because their bunt is more potent a weapon than their power. The leadoff spot is meant to give high percentage on-base players a spot where he can get the most chances to get on-base.

Maddon’s decision to bat Manny leadoff was said to get him early at-bats but who knows, maybe we will see Manny bat there in the regular? If there is a manager out there that will bunk conventional wisdom it’s Joe Maddon and Manny was right in 2005, it doesn’t matter where he hits, and that includes leadoff.

2011 Rays Projections: Manny Ramirez

The Tampa Bay Rays made a few headlines when they signed Manny Ramirez to a one-year deal worth $2M. A lot of people were shocked at the low rate since Ramirez was coming off of a two-year deal worth $45M with the Dodgers and an eight-year deal worth $160M with Red Sox before that.

Ramirez, who will be 39 at the end of May, has only played in 150+ games once in the past five seasons and is limited to DH duties and probably should not have seen any time in LF since the end of 2003.

Projecting Ramirez is kind of tough. We know his amazing track record as a hitter, we know his track record of missing games the past few seasons, and he has actually hit right-handers better than left-handers over the past three seasons. He might find himself playing in a couple games in LF just to get his bat in the game and we know that will hurt his value.

For the past few years I have been using my own tools to project player stats. Last year I stumbled upon Fangraph’s Fan Projections which allows you to plug in rates, games played, batting order, UZR, and running stats based on 150 game totals. It allows you to pick ranges, not exact totals, so the projections will not be as exact as one might want, but they come close.

Using this tool, three-year averages (which I use in the FG projections), age regression/progression, and my own gut, I come up with this for Manny Ramirez’s projected stats in 2011:

Stat	Total
AVG	.290
OBP	.403
SLG	.494
OPS	.897
Plate App.	454
At-Bats	393
Hits	114
Homeruns	18
Doubles	26
Triples	0
BB	61
SO	90
SB	0
UZR	-2

 

Those modest projections, compared to Ramirez’s career track record, project to about 2.0-2.3 fWAR depending on the replacement level for 2011. Incredible value for the Rays.