2011 Rays Projections: Manny Ramirez

January 30, 2011 at 1:52 pm 4 comments

Manny Ramirez Getty Images

The Tampa Bay Rays made a few headlines when they signed Manny Ramirez to a one-year deal worth $2M. A lot of people were shocked at the low rate since Ramirez was coming off of a two-year deal worth $45M with the Dodgers and an eight-year deal worth $160M with Red Sox before that.

Ramirez, who will be 39 at the end of May, has only played in 150+ games once in the past five seasons and is limited to DH duties and probably should not have seen any time in LF since the end of 2003.

Projecting Ramirez is kind of tough. We know his amazing track record as a hitter, we know his track record of missing games the past few seasons, and he has actually hit right-handers better than left-handers over the past three seasons. He might find himself playing in a couple games in LF just to get his bat in the game and we know that will hurt his value.

For the past few years I have been using my own tools to project player stats. Last year I stumbled upon Fangraph’s Fan Projections which allows you to plug in rates, games played, batting order, UZR, and running stats based on 150 game totals. It allows you to pick ranges, not exact totals, so the projections will not be as exact as one might want, but they come close.

Using this tool, three-year averages (which I use in the FG projections), age regression/progression, and my own gut, I come up with this for Manny Ramirez’s projected stats in 2011:

 Stat  Total
 AVG  .290
 OBP  .403
 SLG  .494
 OPS  .897
 Plate App.  454
 At-Bats  393
 Hits  114
 Homeruns  18
 Doubles  26
 Triples  0
 BB  61
 SO  90
 SB  0
 UZR  -2

 

Those modest projections, compared to Ramirez’s career track record, project to about 2.0-2.3 fWAR depending on the replacement level for 2011. Incredible value for the Rays.

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