2010 MLB Predictions

Man, it has been a while since I’ve written.  This is me, coming out of my hybernation and predictiong what will happen in the 2010 baseball season.  Hint:  If you know me personally, I have been touting my World Series winner for this season since the beginning of 2007.

AL East
1. Red Sox (95-67)
2. Rays (94-68) (Wild Card)
3. Yankees (93-69)
4. Orioles (74-88)
5. Blue Jays (70-92)

AL Central
1. Twins (87-75)
2. White Sox (82-80)
3. Indians (78-84)
4. Tigers (78-84)
5. Royals (70-92)

AL West
1. Rangers (84-78)
2. Angels (83-79)
3. Athletics (80-82)
4. Mariners (79-85)

NL East
1. Phillies (91-71)
2. Braves (88-74) (Wild Card)
3. Marlins (78-84)
4. Mets (76-86)
5. Nationals (73-89)

NL Central
1. Cardinals (89-73)
2. Brewers (85-77)
3. Cubs (78-84)
4. Reds (77-85)
5. Pirates (71-91)
6. Astros (71-91)

NL West
1. Rockies (87-75)
2. Dodgers (85-77)
3. Diamondbacks (81-81)
4. Giants (79-83)
5. Padres (74-88)

World Series
Rays over Rockies in 6

World Series MVP
Ben Zobrist

MVP
AL: Evan Longoria, Joe Mauer, Nelson Cruz, Ben Zobrist, Dustin Pedroia
NL: Troy Tulowitzki, Chase Utley, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Pablo Sandoval

Cy Young
AL: Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, Brett Anderson, Zack Greinke
NL: Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez, Dan Haren

Rookie of the Year
AL: Brian Matusz, Scott Sizemore, Wade Davis, Ausitn Jackson, Neftali Feliz
NL: Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasburg, Alcides Escobar, Buster Posey, Aroldis Chapman

Andruw Jones Might Be an Upgrade in RF

(AP Photo)

The Chicago White Sox struck a heck of a deal with OF/DH/1B Andruw Jones that will pay him a base salary of $500k with the potential for $1M more, a figure he will surely reach with moderate playing time. I absolutely love this deal for the White Sox even though they will not give him a starting job, at least not right off the bat.

The White Sox are likely going to lose outfielders Scott Podsednik and Jermaine Dye this offseason and they have already lost backup outfielder DeWayne Wise. The White Sox needed some outfield depth and that’s why they signed Jones.

The White Sox already have Carlos Quentin in left and Alex Rios is more than capable of patrolling center, but they are slated to have Mark Kotsay, Alejandro De Aza or some other quad-A player in right. Bleh. That gives them no power in an outfield corner spot. Not good. I think Andruw Jones could and should be the man in right field next season and, check this, he may actually be an upgrade over the beloved Jermaine Dye.

Jermaine Dye posted a sad and pathetic UZR/150 of -24.5 in right last year. Add that to a .250/.340/.453 slash line and .344 wOBA over 574 plate appearances and you end up with a -0.3 WAR player. That’s right, -0.3. He was below replacement level last season. In 2008 he was a 1.7 WAR player but in 2007 he was a -0.7.

Andruw Jones posted a UZR/150+24.9 in 148.2 outfield innings and +25.4 in 39.2 innings at first base. Small sample sizes, I know, but add that to his .214/.323/.459 slash line and .338 wOBA in only 338 plate appearances and you get a +0.8 WAR player. In 2008 he was a dismal -0.9 WAR player but in 2007 he was a +3.6.

Jones, in my opinion, can still play center but would be plus in a corner spot. And he moves to Chicago’s homer prone windy park and he brings his 49.5% flyball rate with him. All these things added up (and hopefully some off field conditioning) and I think the White Sox could have at least a +2.0 WAR player if they give him 500 plate appearances in right field.

-stats from fangraphs.com

Expect a Bigger Season From Kinsler in 2010

Ian Kinsler set some personal milestones in 2009. He set career highs in homers (31), stolen bases (31), WAR (4.6), UZR/150 (+9.6), fielding percentage (.985), games played (144), plate appearances (640), and at-bats (566). A fantastic season by any accounts, even with his slash line of .253/.327/.488 being down from the previous season. Oh, and his 30/30 season was only the third ever by a second baseman (Alfonso Soriano and Brandon Phillips are the other two). Not much room to go up from there, right? Wrong. I will show you why Kinsler is due for bigger and better things.

Kinsler had the lowest BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of any qualifying player in the majors at .245. This number was easily the lowest of any season in Kinsler’s career (.339, .282, 310). This is a big deal. Imagine two hits per month that just happen to fall in and not get caught. This would move his BABIP to .271 and his overall AVG to .274, and that is still a low BABIP according to his career averages.

Another area of Kinsler’s 2009 season that was out of the norm was his LD% (line-drive percentage). In his first three seasons he posted LD% of 20.6, 19.6, and 24.2. In 2009 he posted a LD% of 15.9, 10th lowest in the majors. That is surely a number that Kinsler will bring back to normal in 2010.

Kinsler is about to enter his age 27 season, thought to be the season that most players have their breakout performances. In Kinsler’s case, this will be his 5th season in the majors and he is full healthy. He is also surrounded by a lineup that no pitcher wants to pitch to.

Kinsler didn’t do anything out of the norm to warrant a drop in his BABIP and LD%. His out-of-zone swing percentage was in-line with his career averages and his contact rates were the best of his career while his BB% was exactly the same as his career average of 9.4%.

With all that said, Kinsler should have no problems bringing his BABIP and LD% back to his career norms. If those two things happen, in addition to his continued progress as a player, I see no reason why Kinsler cannot hit at least .285/.370/.525 and go above and beyond another 30/30 season. Add that to the well above-average defense he displayed last season and Kinsler may very well be on his way to an MVP type season. Do not rule it out.

-stats from FanGraphs.com