Posts tagged ‘Zack Greinke’
Need + Surplus = Marcum for Lawrie Trade
When news first got out that Shaun Marcum was heading to the Milwaukee Brewers the prospect was rumored to be Brett Lawrie. I thought to myself that there was no way the Brewers would give him up for Marcum. Well, I was wrong. The Brewers, in a desperation move to add a starter because they cannot afford a top free agent, pulled the trigger on Marcum in exchange for their best prospect. I want to make it clear that I believe the Jays won this trade but I understand why the Brewers made it.
The Brewers 2011 rotation before the acquisition of Marcum would have looked a little like this (with 2010 stats):
Pitcher | IP | FIP | ERA | WAR |
Yovani Gallardo | 185.0 | 3.02 | 3.84 | 4.6 |
Randy Wolf | 215.2 | 4.85 | 4.17 | 0.7 |
Chris Narveson | 167.2 | 4.22 | 4.99 | 1.7 |
Manny Parra | 122.0 | 4.50 | 5.02 | 0.4 |
Mark Rogers | 10.0 | 2.08 | 1.80 | 0.3 |
That’s far from a contender’s rotation, especially with the poor defense that plays behind them. Parra and Rogers both belong in the bullpen, and Narveson is more of a 5th starter with Wolf being a solid #4. That leaves the Brewers with a heavy need of a #2 and #3 starter, something that will cost you roughly $8-$12M per year in the current market. The Brewers simply cannot afford that. When the opportunity to acquire Shaun Marcum came up they felt compelled to make the deal happen. Here is what their 2011 rotation could look like with Marcum:
Pitcher | IP | FIP | ERA | WAR |
Yovani Gallardo | 185.0 | 3.02 | 3.84 | 4.6 |
Shaun Marcum | 195.1 | 3.64 | 3.74 | 3.5 |
Randy Wolf | 215.2 | 4.85 | 4.17 | 0.7 |
Chris Narveson | 167.2 | 4.22 | 4.99 | 1.7 |
Mark Rogers | 10.0 | 2.08 | 1.80 | 0.3 |
Marcum is an instant upgrade to a bleak rotation and allows Parra to move to the pen, where he belongs. He is also under team control for two more years and will cost much less than a free agent of his caliber.
Toronto makes this trade without blinking an eye. They acquire Canada-native Lawrie, currently learning secondbase, and could choose to either keep him and develop him or add him to a package and try and land the Royals Zack Greinke.
Lawrie is very raw at secondbase and may end up having to move to a corner outfield position or firstbase, something the Brewers had their own surplus of. Here is a scouting report from Keith Law on Lawrie:
Lawrie has a good swing, almost a classic left-handed swing but from the right side, with tremendous rotation and raw power. I’ve seen him overstride in BP, but he quiets down a little in games, still taking all-out swings but with such a good swing path that he covers the plate and struggles only with changing speeds. He’s an intense, aggressive, “one-speed” player who might benefit from dialing it down a notch every now and then, and the lack of finesse in his game is part of what holds him back as an infielder.
Lawrie hit .285/.346/.449 with a wOBA of .361 and ISO of .164. He hit 8 homers, 35 doubles, 16 triples, and stole 30 bases. His pitch recognition is lacking but he still performed incredibly well for a 20 year old in 604 plate appearances in AA. If Lawrie can stick to secondbase he could be a star, but the odds seem against him staying there. I think he can, for what ever that is worth.
The Jays had a major surplus of starters with Rickey Romero, Brett Cecil, Brandon Morrow, Kyle Drabek, and Marc Rzepczynski all capable of filling out a rotation.
As the trade stands it made total sense for the Jays to do with their surplus and the Brewers addressed a need that, saved them money, although they still paid a high fee for it.
My 2009 MLB Awards
Below are my selections for the 2009 awards in Major League Baseball. I added stats my winners to clarify why I chose them and I also included some stats on some players that may make you scratch your head. Agree or disagree, these are my awards:
NL MVP
1. Albert Pujols (1B-STL) – 1st in HR, XBH, WAR, OBP, SLG, OPS, and wOBA.
2. Chase Utley (2B-PHI)
3. Hanley Ramirez (SS-FLA)
4. Prince Fielder (1B-MIL)
5. Troy Tulowitzki (SS-COL)
6. Ryan Zimmerman (3B-WAS)
7. Matt Kemp (OF-LAD)
8. Adrian Gonzalez (1B-SD)
9. Derek Lee (1B-CHC)
10. Ryan Braun (OF-MIL)
AL MVP
1. Joe Mauer (C-MIN) – 2nd in WAR, AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, and plays toughest position in the game.
2. Ben Zobrist (2B-TB) – 1st in WAR, 4th in OBP, OPS, 2nd in fielding value.
3. Miguel Cabrera (1B-DET)
4. Zack Greinke (SP-KC)
5. Derek Jeter (SS-NYY)
6. Mark Teixeira (1B-NYY)
7. Evan Longoria (3B-TB)
8. Kevin Youkilis (1B-BOS)
9. Chone Figgins (3B-LAA)
10. Adam Lind (OF-TOR)
NL Cy Young
1. Tim Lincecum (SP-SF) – 1st in WAR, FIP, SO, and K/9, tied for 1st in CG and SHO, 2nd in ERA, 3rd in IP
2. Adam Wainwright (SP-STL)
3. Javier Vazquez (SP-ATL) – 2nd in WAR, FIP, and K/BB, 3rd in K/9, 4th in BB/9
4. Chris Carpenter (SP-STL)
5. Dan Haren (SP-ARI)
6. Matt Cain (SP-SF)
7. Jonathan Broxton (RP-LAD) – 76 IP, 114/29 K/BB, 1.97 FIP, 2.61 ERA, .165/.247/.232 against, 0.96 WHIP, 1st in WAR among relievers.
8. Jair Jurrjens (SP-ATL)
9. Josh Johnson (SP-FLA)
10. Ubaldo Jimenez (SP-COL)
AL Cy Young
1. Zack Greinke (SP-KC) – 1st in WAR, ERA, FIP, WHIP, OBP, 2nd in K, CG, SHO, and K/BB.
2. Roy Halladay (SP-TOR) – 1st in K/BB, CG, SHO, BB/9, and P/IP, 2nd in IP and OBP, 3rd in WAR, ERA, and FIP.
3. Felix Hernandez (SP-SEA) – 1st in BAA and SLG, 2nd in ERA, 3rd in IP, WHIP, 4th in FIP and WAR.
4. Justin Verlander (SP-DET)
5. Jon Lester (SP-BOS)
6. C.C. Sabathia (SP-NYY)
7. Josh Beckett (SP-BOS)
8. Jered Weaver (SP-LAA)
9. Edwin Jackson (SP-DET)
10. Mariano Rivera (RP-NYY)
NL Rookie Of the Year
1. Andrew McCutchen (OF-PIT) – 1st in WAR (among rookies) and just read this for more on him.
2. Chris Coghlan (OF-FLA)
3. Tommy Hanson (SP-ATL)
4. J.A. Happ (SP-PHI)
5. Garrett Jones (OF-PIT)
6. Randy Wells (SP-CHC)
7. Casey McGehee (3B-MIL)
AL Rookie Of the Year
1. Brett Anderson (SP-OAK) – 1st in WAR among all AL rookies, 175 IP, 3.69 FIP (8th in the AL), 150/45 K/BB.
2. Elvis Andrus (SS-TEX)
3. Andrew Bailey (RP-OAK)
4. Jeff Niemann (SP-TB)
5. Rick Porcello (SP-DET)
6. Nolan Reimold (OF-BAL)
7. Gordon Beckham (3B-CHW)
NL Manager Of the Year
1. Jim Tracy (COL)
2. Tony LaRussa (STL)
3. Fredi Gonzalez (FLA)
AL Manager Of the Year
1. Mike Scioscia (LAA)
2. Ron Washington (TEX)
3. Ron Gardenhire (MIN)