World Series Preview and Prediction

The Colorado Rockies vs. the Boston Red Sox. First timers vs. 2004 World Champions. We have a matchup that no one could’ve predicted. Who would’ve predicted the Colorado Rockies to be in the World Series? If you did and you have written documentation stating you picked them in Spring Training then I would love to see it. Anyway, here I go with my breakdown of the teams:

Starting Rotation: The Boston Red Sox have one of the best playoff pitchers of all-time in Josh Beckett and he will get the ball atleast two times in a series that isn’t swept. They also have veteran, and playoff great Curt Schilling. Following them will be Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield. I don’t think Beckett will have a problem, especially in front of his home crowd. If Schilling can command his fastball he will give you a good 7 innnings. I worry about Dice-K pitching in Coors and Wakefield’s knuckle being obsolete in Coors.

The Colorado Rockies have lefty Jeff Francis going but Game 1 will be his biggest game ever. He has done well in high pressure situations in Coors but Fenway is a different story. Ubaldo Jimenez might have the same problems against that Fenway crowd. If he can’t command his pitches it’ll be a short outing for him, he walked over 100 total batter this season. Game 3 is Fogg vs. Dice-K and that might be Colorado’s best chance. If they can get to Dice-K early and force the bullpen in early they can try to wear down the pen for the series. Game 4 starters for Colorado haven’t been decided but I would go with Franklin Morales over Aaron Cook. Morales has more electrifying stuff and Cook could be a good long reliever if they need to save the pen in a potential blow out.

Advantage: Red Sox

Bullpen: The Red Sox have a deep pen and possibly the best closer in the game in Jonathan Papelbon. Throw in Hideki Okajima to face Helton and Hawpe, Delcarmen and his mid-high 90s fastball, and Timlin and his control and you have a well-balanced, deep pen.

The Rockies have a great closer in Manny Corpas, who may get more movement on his fastball than Mariano Rivera does. After Corpas the Rockies are a little thin. I like Brian Fuentes to get the lefties out. Matt Herges has been surprisingly good. They have a good pen for long relief though with Taylor Buchholz and either Morales or Cook.

Advantage: Red Sox

Lineup: We all the Red Sox have a deep lineup from top to near bottom. Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis (who should’ve won ALCS MVP), David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew (who finally learned how to hit), Jason Varitek, Jacoby Ellsbury (he’s an upgrade over Crisp), and Julio Lugo. I love the layout of the lineup. On-base and power from 1-7, then 8 and 9 are fast guys who can set the table for the top of the lineup. This team takes pitches so if one of the Rockies’ starters are off this team will make them pay.

The Rockies’ lineup, in my opinion, stacks up nicely against the Red Sox. Willy Taveras could stand to take a few pitches but he can be a threat on the bases. Kaz Matsui is the same. Troy Tulowitzki (my R.O.Y.) is a dangerous #2 hitter and has the same fire of greatness that Josh Beckett has. Once you reach Helton you know you’ll get a long, good at-bat. After him is the power. MVP candidate Matt Holliday (who homered off of Beckett in Boston), then Garrett Atkins (who hit a grand slam off Beckett), then Brad Hawpe. After that it gets a little thin. This team scores in bunches and if the bottom of the lineup hits then you are in trouble.

Advantage: Red Sox (very close call though)

Home Field Advantage: Both home teams will make noise that will register on the Richter Scale. The Fenway Faithful don’t mess around, they never stop and do whatever it takes to get the opponents attention. The Rockies may actually have a louder stadium because they have higher attendance and the Rockies have some great fans. When the Red Sox come to Coors they will be forced to field Ortiz at 1B and move Youkilis to RF and replace a Gold Glove caliber Drew. the right side of the field just got way worse. When you go back to Fenway the Rox just get to put a bat inplace of the pitcher so there is no loss there. Seth Smith has been hot and Jeff Baker can hit if Jon Lester or another lefty comes in.

Advantage: Rockies

Prediction: I think it is going to be very hard to beat Beckett even though the Rockies already did it once this season. The Red Sox have the better team, period. The 9 day layoff is surely going to hurt the Rockies and the momentum the Red Sox got from coming back down 3-1 is huge. Conventional wisdom would pick the Red Sox in 5 or 6 but conventional wisdom flew out the door when the Rockies made the postseason. Call me crazy but I am going to go with my gut and say the Rockies in 6.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell

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