NL West Predictions

The National League West is possibly the most competitive division in all of baseball with 4 teams that will be in contention to the end. Here are my NL West predicitons:

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Strengths
1) Pitching rotation – The rotation is deep with the newly acquired Dan Haren and if Randy Johnson can pitch for just half a season they will be in fine order.
2) Defense – The outfield defense is top notch. They have two guys with great range and great arms and they have Eric Byrnes who is slightly above average. Orlando Hudson is a Gold Glover at 2B and Stephen Drew is above average at short.

Weaknesses:
1) Bullpen – The bullpen is pretty deep but it lacks that “knock-out” guy. It has the potential to be very good but the downside to be below average.
2) Bargaining Chips – All the top level minor league talent was traded to get Dan Haren. If the D-Backs need to acquire someone they will have to deal Chad Tracy and I’m not sure he will bring a ton in return and that will weaken the bench tremendously.

Breakout Candidate:
1) Conor Jackson is the reason they let Tony Clark walk. They think he can be the everyday 1B and that he will finally show 20+ homer power. I believe he will. I think this is the year Conor Jackson puts up stellar numbers and puts the critics to rest.

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Strengths
1) Pitching – The Dodgers have a glut of pitching from top to bottom. They have a rotation that is 6 deep and a bullpen that could be one of the best in the entire majors.
2) Depth – The Dodgers have the chance to make Juan Pierre a 4th OFer. They have Nomar Garciaparra to play a utility role, and they have young depth in SS Chin-Lung Hu, and outfielder Delwyn Young. They have enough talent to help in case of injury or slump or even to trade for help elsewhere.

Weaknesses:
1) Defense – Pierre and Andruw Jones are both fading and Pierre is already below average. The infield is slow at third and second and Rafael Furcal needs to be healthy to be above average at short.
2) Power – Only one player is projected to hit over 30 homers and it’s Andruw Jones. The Dodgers need to pray they can get more playing time for Matt Kemp and pray that Laroche hits 20-25 at third.

Breakout Candidate:
1) Chad Billingsley posted a 3.12 ERA after the break in 2007, flashing that ace potential that has been in him all along. He has the chance to win 15+ games with an ERA in the mid-3s this year while striking out a good amount of hitters.

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Strengths
1) Pitching – Possibly the best pitching staff in baseball. They have the best right hander in the game in Jake Peavey. The have the chance to win a ton of games and the division if they can get about 50 starts between Wolf and Prior. The bullpen is deep and PETCO is very generous to these pitchers.
2) Home Field – The best pitcher’s park in the game and they play 81 games a year in it.

Weaknesses:
1) Defense – Other than Greene and Gonzalez the defense is average to below average everywhere else.
2) Offense – The main thing that is keeping this team from first place is the offense. They are relying on Jim Edmonds and Brian Giles to play big roles in helping this offense and I think that is asking for disaster.

Breakout Candidate:
1) Kevin Kouzmanoff has always hit and he will continue to hit. Take away his dismal April (8-71) and he hit .303 on the season, including .317 with 11 homers after the break. He has the right handed stick that will allow for Adrian Gonzalez to develop even more.

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Strengths
1) Offense – They sport one of the better offenses in the game and they play in a hitter’s park. ‘Nough said.
2) Defense – The best defense of 2007 returns with 7 of its 8 starters and anchored by the guy who was the best defender at any position last year in Troy Tulowitzki.

Weaknesses:
1) Secondbase – Marcus Giles is going to try and get his career back on track and what better place than Coors field to do so. Not so fast. The guy has to earn his spot over Jayson Nix (who has never played in a major league game) and we don’t know if either guy will perform this year.
2) Pitching inexperience – Ubaldo Jimenez, Franklin Morales, and Manny Corpas all look like bonafide major leaguers. They are all inexperienced and the only one I think that will be fine this season is Corpas. Jimenez walked 100 hitters last year and Morales has command issues of his own and will start in the bullpen. The Rox are relying on these guys for too much this season.

Breakout Candidate:
1) Brad Hawpe should take a leap this year. He should be a near lock for a 30+ homers and .300/.400/.550 season, give or take. It’s not a huge leap from last season but he has the potential for even more if he can figure out lefties.

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Strengths
1) Rotation – I feel bad for this rotation. We could see 4 guys post ERAs under 4 and still finish with losing records. This rotation is potentially 6 deep but they won’t get any run support.
2) Can’t find another strength.

Weaknesses:
1) Offense – This could be the worst offense in the hitter era. This offense is going to bring down a great rotation and cause a lot of frustration.
2) Brian Sabean – One bad signing after another and the guy still has a job. I don’t get it. He gives deals out like his team is a contender. He has almost $200M invested in Zito and Rowand alone. Both guys will be in the downslope of thier careers when this team is contending again thanks to Sabean.

Breakout Candidate:
1) Fred Lewis can get on base, steal, and hit. He would probably provide 30 doubles, 10 triples, 10 homers,a nd 30 steals if given a full-time job. Sabean shuold trade Dave Roberts and see what he has in Fred Lewis.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell

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