The 2009-2011 HOF candidates

January 10, 2008 at 8:48 pm 33 comments

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The 2008 Hall of Fame class was one of the weakest in a while. It only saw one player get inducted and it saw some borderline candidates inch a little closer. It also saw a “steroid era” player in Mark McGwire barely go up in votes. We are in an era where the Hall voters are unpredictable. Here is a look at the coming classes of candidates.

2009 candidates: Steve Avery, Jay Bell, Mike Bordick, John Burkett, David Cone, Ron Gant, Mark Grace, Rickey Henderson, Charles Nagy, Denny Neagle, Jesse Orosco, Dean Palmer, Dan Plesac, Rick Reed, Greg Vaughn, Mo Vaughn, Matt Williams, Mike Williams.

Rickey Henderson, and the most anticipated induction speech of all-time, is the only given player to be inducted in 2009. There is no reason Henderson shouldn’t get 90%+ of the votes. Henderson is 4th all-time in plate appearances and games, 10th all-time in at-bats, ist all-time in leadoff homers, 21st in hits (3055), 56th in OBP (.401), first in runs (2295), 34th in total bases (4588), 2nd in walks (2190), 10th in runs created (2164), 4th in times on base (5343), and the one we all know is he’s first in stolen bases (1406). It’s also Jim Rice’s last season and he might get in with “last ballot sympathy votes” but he wouldn’t get my vote if I had one. Mark Grace is the only other candidate worth 25% of the vote. He might get enough votes to stay on the ballot for a couple years but that is about it. We should also see Dawson and Blyleven get some more votes this year but fall short of election. I would still be on the Mark McGwire bandwagon and I hope he gets more votes.

2010 candidates: Roberto Alomar, Kevin Appier, Andy Ashby, Ellis Burks, Andres Galarraga, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Eric Karros, Ray Lankford, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Shane Reynolds, Robin Ventura, Todd Zeile.

This is a very nice group. I think before the “steroid era” Fred McGriff had no chance to get in and was destined to be remembered as the new Dave Kingman (most homers without HOF induction and he has 493) but now I see him as an Andre Dawson type that will eventually get in but probably not on the first ballot. McGriff never had any sterioid suspicion and that will only help his cause. Edgar Martinez is a toss-up but not for me. He was an incredible hitter but became a DH too soon. He also started his career a little late (first full season at 27) so his stats aren’t what they should be but they are still very compelling. The fact that his career OPS+ is 147 and the fact he played long enough to mean something is good enough for me. I think he belongs but some voters may strongly disagree. Roberto Alomer also belongs in my opinon on the first ballot. A seconbaseman that posts a .300/.371/.443 and plays Gold Glove caliber defense with 210 homers, 474 steals, 504 soubles, and over 4000 total bases belongs in. Barry Larkin will probably make it by the 2nd or 3rd try if not the first. This is a very good class.

2011 candidates: Wilson Alvarez, Carlos Baerga, Jeff Bagwell, Bret Boone, Kevin Brown, John Franco, Juan Gonzalez, Marquis Grissom, Al Leiter, Tino Martinez, Raul Mondesi, Hideo Nomo, John Olerud, Rafael Palmeiro, Benito Santiago, Ugueth Urbina, Larry Walker.

Now the “steroid era” really begins. Most of the players that were even borderline candidates for the “steroid era” will be off the ballot or very close to induction. Every hitter on this list with the exception of maybe John Olerud will have suspicion written all over them. We already know about Palmeiro. There have been suspicions of Bagwell, Gonzalez, Martinez, Santiago, and Boone just to name a few. Larry Walker even has suspicions and his home/road splits will start the Coors field affect on HOF voting. This is the year that Fred McGriff, Barry Larkin, Tim Raines, Bert Blyleven and Andre Dawson get in if they are not already in. This class will begin a heated deabte and it will be a very scary time if things get out of hand with voters.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell
candidates were from baseballhalloffame.org and stats from baseball-reference.com

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33 Comments Add your own

  • 1. erik  |  January 10, 2008 at 2:50 pm

    I think each year 2009-2011 has 1 player that stands out as a HOF candidate. 2009 Rickey Henderson is no doubt about it a HOFer. 2010 Fred McGrif put up the numbers worthy of a HOF vote will he get it? 2011 Bagwell… The man played great defense and hit for average with POWER.

    Reply
  • 2. Jonathan C. Mitchell  |  January 10, 2008 at 3:00 pm

    I would vote Bagwell in but I know of writers who wouldn’t include him due to his steroid suspicion. It’s sad but that’s the state we are in and by that time it might be a disaster.

    Reply
  • 3. Charlie Nehl  |  January 10, 2008 at 9:30 pm

    Theoretically, we might be able to remove Nomo from the list as he just signed a Minor League contract. And who knows about Rickey Henderson. He says he still wants to play. Mark Grace might one of those guys who sits for a few years, and starts getting more votes, but overall I’m not sure he’s Hall worthy.

    If Uggie Urbina ever gets out of Venezuelan jail, who knows he might pitch again.

    Reply
  • 4. Jonathan C. Mitchell  |  January 10, 2008 at 11:01 pm

    There are some guys who might make it back to the Bigs but I don’t see Henderson doing it. Urbina needs to get out of jail and I’m not sure he can. I think his sentence is something like 27 years.

    Reply
  • 5. Charlie Nehl  |  January 11, 2008 at 6:39 am

    Now I think if Nomo doesn’t make the big leagues and doesn’t take his minor league assignment, or gets cut he’s still eligible, but it wouldn’t matter anyway, he won’t make the Hall.

    Reply
  • 6. Jonathan C. Mitchell  |  January 11, 2008 at 7:26 am

    I agree. The only way Nomo makes it is if they include his Japanese stats with his MLB stats. He may be voted in one day by the Veteran’s Committee for paving the way for japanese players, especially pitchers.

    Reply
  • 7. erik  |  January 11, 2008 at 8:47 am

    to date Nomo has been the best Japanese pitcher in MLB. Does this mean he belongs in the HOF. NO… As far as japanese players that belong in the HOF as of NOW the only player that has a chance is ICHIRO. At least in my opinion.

    Reply
  • 8. Jonathan C. Mitchell  |  January 11, 2008 at 8:53 am

    I agree that Ichiro is the only that has a chance based on MLB stats alone. Veteran Committees seem to award “ambassadors” or “revolutionists” who had good careers and Nomo would fit that bill. His stats aren’t Hall worthy though.

    Reply
  • 9. erik  |  January 11, 2008 at 8:56 am

    Nomo has a ball from a no-hitter in the hall and he is mentioned on it… that is good enough for NOMO. He has as good a shot at making the HOF as Darryl Kile does and to me their stats are similar.

    Reply
  • 10. Jonathan C. Mitchell  |  January 11, 2008 at 9:00 am

    Nomo has a better K/rate and less H/9 but Kile has more innigs and a about the same winning percentage. Good comparison. I still think he might get in one day by vote of the Veteran’s Committee. I also think the same way with either Tommy John or the doctor who performed the surgery on him.

    Reply
  • 11. erik  |  January 11, 2008 at 9:14 am

    Hmm to have a procedure named after me or a deadly disease… I think the procedure so Yes Tommy John’s doctore does belong in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

    Reply
  • 12. erik  |  January 11, 2008 at 9:30 am

    2011 candidates:
    Wilson Alvarez-no chance
    Carlos Baerga-forgot how to hit
    Jeff Bagwell-best bet
    Bret Boone-probably
    Kevin Brown-no chance any more, John Franco-Yes but not 1st ballot Juan Gonzalez-nope
    Marquis Grissom-no chance
    Al Leiter-NO chance
    Tino Martinez-nope
    Raul Mondesi-nope
    Hideo Nomo-nope
    John Olerud-nope
    Rafael Palmeiro-only if B12 is available
    Benito Santiago-nope
    Ugueth Urbina-NO CHANCE
    Larry Walker- Probably will.

    Reply
  • 13. erik  |  January 11, 2008 at 9:36 am

    2010 candidates:
    Roberto Alomar-ruined his legacy with his play with the mets and the spitting incident
    Kevin Appier-no because he spent most of his years on the DL
    Andy Ashby-he was good but not HOF good
    Ellis Burks-nope
    Andres Galarraga-maybe
    Pat Hentgen-good but if Morris doesn’t get in neither does Hentgen
    Mike Jackson-No chance
    Eric Karros-Nope
    Ray Lankford-no chance
    Barry Larkin-Yes he gets in
    Edgar Martinez-pure hitter who couldn’t field for dog doo maybe.
    Fred McGriff-Yes he belongs
    Shane Reynolds-NO
    Robin Ventura-I like ventura but NO
    Todd Zeile-NO CHANCE.

    Reply
  • 14. Jonathan C. Mitchell  |  January 11, 2008 at 9:38 am

    Bret Boone? John Franco has a slim chance but if Lee Smith doesn’t make it I don’t know how Franco does. I don’t see a closer getting in until Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman. Larry Walker does have an outside shot, I agree there. I would vote for Palmeiro if I had a vote.

    The one in that class that won’t get any love is John Olerud and I think he is a good borderline candidate. He hit .295/.398/.465 with 500 doubles, 255 homers, 1275/1016 BB/K ratio, 1230 RBI, and won 3 Gold Gloves. I don’t think he is a HOFer but he should get a good 25% and stay on the ballot for a couple years.

    Reply
  • 15. erik  |  January 11, 2008 at 9:42 am

    2009 candidates:
    Steve Avery-Not even after all the braves starters are inducted.
    Jay Bell-NO Way
    Mike Bordick-NO Chance
    John Burkett-NO
    David Cone-I like him but again if Jack Morris doesn’t go neither does Cone.
    Ron Gant-NO Chance
    Mark Grace-If Mattingly or Hernandez doesn’t go neither does Grace.
    Rickey Henderson-Definitely HOFer
    Charles Nagy-Nope.
    Denny Neagle-Nope.
    Jesse Orosco-What he’s not playing still at 55?
    Dean Palmer-No
    Dan Plesac-No
    Rick Reed-NO
    Greg Vaughn-NO
    Mo Vaughn-NO Way
    Matt Williams-NO Way
    Mike Williams-NOT a Chance

    Reply
  • 16. Jonathan C. Mitchell  |  January 11, 2008 at 9:43 am

    I don’t think there is anyway Galarraga makes it. I agree on the others though. I would vote for Edgar Martinez, Barry Larkin (but not on the first ballot), Fred McGriff, and Roberto Alomar.

    Reply
  • 17. erik  |  January 11, 2008 at 9:44 am

    I do want Lee Smith to enter the HOF… so I see Franco getting in as well.

    Reply
  • 18. Jonathan C. Mitchell  |  January 11, 2008 at 9:47 am

    Again, I agree with your 2009 list. Only Henderson deserves. I think Jim Rice might get in that year because he is on his last ballot.

    Reply
  • 19. Jonathan C. Mitchell  |  January 11, 2008 at 9:48 am

    I wouldn’t mind Lee Smith in but I don’t think he gets in. The voters have a problem with his reccord and his “dominance”. His K/rate was about equal with Gossage.

    Reply
  • 20. erik  |  January 11, 2008 at 9:49 am

    I too like Olerud but he just doesn’t have the stats to get in there.
    Galarraga stats:
    Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG *OPS+ TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
    +————–+—+—-+—-+—-+—+–+—+—-+—+–+—+—+—–+—–+—–+—-+—-+—+—+—+—+—+
    1985 24 MON NL 24 75 9 14 1 0 2 4 1 2 3 18 .187 .228 .280 45 21 0 0 0 1 0
    1986 25 MON NL 105 321 39 87 13 0 10 42 6 5 30 79 .271 .338 .405 105 130 1 1 5 3 8
    1987 26 MON NL 147 551 72 168 40 3 13 90 7 10 41 127 .305 .361 .459 114 253 0 4 13 10 11
    1988 27 MON NL 157 609 99 184 42 8 29 92 13 4 39 153 .302 .352 .540 150 329 0 3 9 10 12 SS,MVP-7,AS
    1989 28 MON NL 152 572 76 147 30 1 23 85 12 5 48 158 .257 .327 .434 115 248 0 3 10 13 12
    1990 29 MON NL 155 579 65 148 29 0 20 87 10 1 40 169 .256 .306 .409 99 237 0 5 8 4 14
    1991 30 MON NL 107 375 34 82 13 2 9 33 5 6 23 86 .219 .268 .336 70 126 0 0 5 2 6
    1992 31 STL NL 95 325 38 79 14 2 10 39 5 4 11 69 .243 .282 .391 92 127 0 3 0 8 8
    1993 32 COL NL 120 470 71 174 35 4 22 98 2 4 24 73 .370 .403 .602 149 283 0 6 12 6 9 MVP-10,AS
    1994 33 COL NL 103 417 77 133 21 0 31 85 8 3 19 93 .319 .356 .592 127 247 0 5 8 8 10 MVP-10
    1995 34 COL NL 143 554 89 155 29 3 31 106 12 2 32 146 .280 .331 .511 97 283 0 5 6 13 14 MVP-16
    1996 35 COL NL 159 626 119 190 39 3 47 150 18 8 40 157 .304 .357 .601 127 376 0 8 3 17 6 SS,MVP-6
    1997 36 COL NL 154 600 120 191 31 3 41 140 15 8 54 141 .318 .389 .585 131 351 0 3 2 17 16 MVP-7,AS
    1998 37 ATL NL 153 555 103 169 27 1 44 121 7 6 63 146 .305 .397 .595 157 330 0 5 11 25 8 MVP-6,AS
    2000 39 ATL NL 141 494 67 149 25 1 28 100 3 5 36 126 .302 .369 .526 122 260 0 1 5 17 15 AS
    2001 40 TOT 121 399 50 102 28 1 17 69 1 3 31 117 .256 .326 .459 103 183 0 3 2 12 12
    TEX AL 72 243 33 57 16 0 10 34 1 0 18 68 .235 .310 .424 88 103 0 1 1 9 9
    SFG NL 49 156 17 45 12 1 7 35 0 3 13 49 .288 .351 .513 127 80 0 2 1 3 3
    2002 41 MON NL 104 292 30 76 12 0 9 40 2 2 30 81 .260 .344 .394 92 115 0 3 6 9 8
    2003 42 SFG NL 110 272 36 82 15 0 12 42 1 3 19 61 .301 .352 .489 118 133 0 0 1 2 9
    2004 43 ANA AL 7 10 1 3 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 3 .300 .364 .600 149 6 0 0 0 1 1
    +————–+—+—-+—-+—-+—+–+—+—-+—+–+—+—+—–+—–+—–+—-+—-+—+—+—+—+—+
    19 Seasons 8096 2333 32 1425 81 2003 .288 .347 .499 118 1 58 106 178 179
    2257 1195 444 399 128 583 4038

    Reply
  • 21. Jonathan C. Mitchell  |  January 11, 2008 at 9:55 am

    I agree. Olerud won’t get in. I don’t Galarraga has the stats either. His stats are padded by Coors Field. His career OPS+ of 118 is not HOF material for a 1B.

    Reply
  • 22. Jonathan C. Mitchell  |  January 11, 2008 at 10:00 am

    2012 Class so far:
    Vinny Castilla – No
    Bill Mueller – No
    Brad Radke – No
    Tim Salmon – No
    Ruben Sierra – No
    Bernie Williams – Borderline No for me
    Tim Worrell – No

    Reply
  • 23. erik  |  January 11, 2008 at 11:41 am

    2012 class is a weak class. If any of them including Bernie Williams gets in I’m giving up baseball completely.

    Reply
  • 24. 19  |  January 11, 2008 at 11:48 am

    For the last 24 hours, I’ve been racking my brain trying to remember what caused me to think this, to no avail: I was convinced Robbie Alomar was on the juice. Was he mentioned in the Canseco book? I just can’t remember where I got this from. I remember he retired suddenly right when the suspensions started, and I always thought he quit because of that. Wasn’t he supposed to be the starting 2B for the Rays one day, and quit the next?

    Reply
  • 25. Jonathan C. Mitchell  |  January 11, 2008 at 12:07 pm

    I can’t recall any suspicion of him but yes he was going to start for the Rays and retired shorty after claiming his eye sight was worse and his reactions were slower and he refused to play if he didn’t think he could perform at a high rate.

    Reply
  • 26. Jonathan C. Mitchell  |  January 11, 2008 at 12:09 pm

    Erik – Haha! I wouldn’t give up but it would make me mad.

    Reply
  • 27. erik  |  January 11, 2008 at 12:19 pm

    I would… I’m a bit tired of all the crap Baseball has put me through during the years I’ve been following. I will really give up baseball for sure if Butch Huskey or Bam Bam Muelens get elected into the HOF.

    Reply
  • 28. erik  |  January 11, 2008 at 12:19 pm

    I would… I’m a bit tired of all the crap Baseball has put me through during the years I’ve been following. I will really give up baseball for sure if Butch Huskey or Bam Bam Muelens get elected into the HOF.

    Reply
  • 29. Jonathan C. Mitchell  |  January 11, 2008 at 12:20 pm

    Now, if that happens I’m out too!

    Reply
  • 30. Brittney  |  January 14, 2008 at 1:58 pm

    How long until John Smoltz and Tom Glavine get in…I mean,we agree they’ll BOTH be there someday,right?

    Reply
  • 31. Jonathan C. Mitchell  |  January 14, 2008 at 2:01 pm

    I agree they will both be first ballot HOFers. They will get in 5 years after they retire. So Glavine should get in in 2013 or so.

    Reply
  • 32. Jonathan C. Mitchell  |  January 14, 2008 at 2:02 pm

    It would be awesome if Glavine, Maddux, and Smoltz all retired together and went into the Hall together.

    Reply
  • 33. Brittney  |  January 16, 2008 at 3:47 pm

    As a Braves fan first and a baseball fan second,I can say that WOULD be awesome!! lol =] I really am glad we got Tommy back…now if we can figure out how to steal Greg,Atlanta will be in business haha

    Reply

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